The rate peg is the maximum percentage by which a council may increase its general income for the year, in IPART's words. It caps the council's total from general rates; how that falls on any one bill depends on how the council spreads it, and charges such as domestic waste sit outside it. None of Bega Valley, Eurobodalla or Shoalhaven is among the seven councils with a special variation approved for 2027-28, so the peg is their limit.

Where the South Coast sits among all 128 councils

Final 2027-28 rate peg, per cent, one dot per council

Every NSW council's 2027-28 rate peg, one dot each128 dots stacked by final rate peg from 3.7 to 6.6 per cent. Shoalhaven at 3.9, Eurobodalla at 4.0 and Bega Valley at 4.1 are marked; all three sit below the state median of 4.3.NSW median 4.3%Albury 4.3%Ballina 4.3%Blue Mountains 4.3%Campbelltown 4.3%Central Coast 4.3%Nambucca 4.3%Northern Beaches 4.3%Shellharbour 4.3%Shoalhaven 3.9%Armidale Regional 3.9%Cabonne 3.9%Forbes 3.9%Inverell 3.9%Kyogle 3.9%Lismore 3.9%Liverpool Plains 3.9%Moree Plains 3.9%Narrabri 3.9%Parkes 3.9%Penrith 3.9%Singleton 3.9%Yass Valley 3.9%Balranald 4.5%Bathurst Regional 4.5%Blayney 4.5%Bogan 4.5%Cumberland 4.5%Hornsby 4.5%Murrumbidgee 4.5%Ryde 4.5%Wollongong 4.5%Bayside 4.6%Cessnock 4.6%Federation 4.6%Georges River 4.6%Lane Cove 4.6%Upper Lachlan 4.6%Walcha 4.6%Weddin 4.6%Willoughby 4.6%Bega Valley 4.1%Broken Hill 4.1%Gunnedah 4.1%Narrandera 4.1%Oberon 4.1%Richmond Valley 4.1%Sydney 4.1%Temora 4.1%Walgett 4.1%Bellingen 4.4%Berrigan 4.4%Canada Bay 4.4%Gilgandra 4.4%Lake Macquarie 4.4%Sutherland 4.4%Blacktown 4.8%Burwood 4.8%Byron 4.8%Mosman 4.8%Uralla 4.8%Waverley 4.8%Eurobodalla 4.0%Bland 4.0%Cobar 4.0%Coffs Harbour 4.0%Cootamundra-Gundagai Regional 4.0%Edward River 4.0%Glen Innes Severn 4.0%Hawkesbury 4.0%Hilltops 4.0%Hunters Hill 4.0%Junee 4.0%Lachlan 4.0%Leeton 4.0%Narromine 4.0%Snowy Valleys 4.0%Upper Hunter 4.0%Warrumbungle 4.0%Wentworth 4.0%Bourke 4.7%Coonamble 4.7%Inner West 4.7%Maitland 4.7%Newcastle 4.7%Parramatta 4.7%Randwick 4.7%Woollahra 4.7%Brewarrina 5.2%Liverpool 5.2%Camden 4.9%Clarence Valley 4.9%Gwydir 4.9%Tenterfield 4.9%Warren 4.9%Canterbury-Bankstown 5.0%Lockhart 5.0%Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional 5.0%Carrathool 5.5%Hay 5.5%Strathfield 5.5%Central Darling 5.4%Coolamon 6.6%Cowra 3.8%Dubbo Regional 3.8%Griffith 3.8%Lithgow 3.8%Mid-Western Regional 3.8%Muswellbrook 3.8%Orange 3.8%Tamworth Regional 3.8%Wagga Wagga 3.8%Dungog 5.3%Murray River 5.3%The Hills 5.3%Fairfield 4.2%Greater Hume 4.2%Ku-ring-gai 4.2%Mid-Coast 4.2%North Sydney 4.2%Port Macquarie-Hastings 4.2%Port Stephens 4.2%Snowy Monaro Regional 4.2%Tweed 4.2%Goulburn Mulwaree 3.7%Kempsey 3.7%Kiama 3.7%Wingecarribee 3.7%Wollondilly 5.7%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%Shoalhaven 3.9Eurobodalla 4.0Bega Valley 4.1
Source: IPART, final rate pegs and components for all councils, 2027-28. Median and placing are our count of the 128 councils in the workbook.

Shoalhaven's 3.9 puts it near the bottom: 13 councils are lower and 14 share 3.9. Eurobodalla's 4.0 has 27 councils below it, Bega Valley's 4.1 has 45. The state runs from 3.7, the lowest, to 6.6 at Coolamon.

Why the coast sits low

Each cap has two parts: a core peg for costs and a population factor on top. The South Coast's core pegs, 3.7 for Bega Valley and 3.8 for the other two, are a shade under the state's median core peg of 3.9. The bigger gap is the population factor: 0.4 for Bega Valley, 0.2 for Eurobodalla and 0.1 for Shoalhaven.

That is not because nobody is moving here. IPART counts growth net of new properties already paying rates: a footnote in its paper says population growth means the change in estimated resident population less prison populations and less the change in supplementary valuations. Supplementary valuations are properties added to a council's rating roll during the year, mostly new development. Shoalhaven's population grew 0.70 per cent on IPART's measure and its supplementary valuations were 0.63 per cent, which leaves almost nothing. Bega Valley's growth of 0.60 per cent had fewer new properties against it, 0.23, which is why it gets the largest factor of the three.

2027-28 rate peg components, percentage points
LineBega
Valley		Eurob­odallaShoal­haven
Base cost change3.113.113.11
Levy factor-0.10-0.090.01
Levy catch-up0.200.260.18
Productivity factor000
Cybersecurity0.470.470.47
Core peg3.73.83.8
Population change0.600.450.70
Supplementary
valuations		0.230.260.63
Population factor0.40.20.1
Final peg 2027-284.14.03.9
Final peg 2026-273.53.13.1

What moved since last year

Eurobodalla rises most, by 0.9 of a point. Last year its population factor was zero, because its supplementary valuations, 0.52 per cent, almost matched its population growth of 0.56; this year it gets 0.2. Last year's core pegs also carried an election cost deduction, 0.23 of a point at Bega Valley, 0.20 at Eurobodalla and 0.08 at Shoalhaven, which is gone, along with a 0.03 dams safety line at Eurobodalla. Base cost change is up from 2.98 to 3.11.

And there is a new line. IPART has added a cybersecurity adjustment by council group, and all three get the regional figure, 0.47 of a point, the biggest single change from last year's core peg. IPART estimates it adds about $7.60 to the average regional residential rate in 2027-28, against an average of $1,620 in 2026-27; that is the group average, not a figure for any of these councils.

What the cap cannot do

The peg arrives in the same months as the Grants Commission's draft formula for Financial Assistance Grants, which we covered on 3 October. On the councils' own published figures, Bega Valley's grant would fall from $10,030,678 to $6,187,548 a year and Shoalhaven's from $16.2 million to $14 million, from 2027-28, while Eurobodalla expects a gain it has not put a number on. The formula is a draft and nothing has been decided.

A rate peg cannot make up a loss of that kind on its own terms, because it is a ceiling set by IPART, not a lever the council can pull further. The only way past it is a special variation, and both of the councils facing cuts have been there recently: IPART approved a permanent 48.3 per cent for Bega Valley, including the peg, over 2023-24 and 2024-25, and a permanent 12 per cent for Shoalhaven from 2025-26. A council wanting one for 2027-28 must apply to IPART by early February 2027.

Our view

This is opinion, built on the figures above. The caps are modest and they are low for an honest reason: IPART's method pays for growth that is not already on the rating roll, and on this coast most of it is, or there is not much of it. That is the method working as designed. The number that matters more for South Coast budgets in 2027-28 is not on IPART's table. It is the Grants Commission's final formula, and whether either council that loses under the draft then decides it needs IPART again.

What to watch

The Grants Commission's decision on its draft formula, after the feedback it is considering in October and November. Any council notifying IPART of an intention to apply for a 2027-28 variation, by the end of November. And each council's draft 2027-28 budget next autumn, where the peg becomes actual rates.

Methodology

We downloaded IPART's per-council component workbooks for 2026-27 and 2027-28 and read every line for the three councils. The levy rows are the Emergency Services Levy factor and its subsidy catch-up. Components are shown to two decimal places from IPART's unrounded figures; core peg, population factor and final peg are IPART's own one-decimal figures. The median, the placings and the chart are our count of all 128 rows of the 2027-28 workbook. The grant figures are the councils' own, as published in September 2026, and come from the draft formula, not a decision. The cybersecurity bill figure is IPART's average for the regional group. We have not sought comment from the councils, and no individual is named.